Who is more likely to eventually commit homicide: arsonists, kidnappers, blackmailers or people who threaten to kill?
The interrelationships between serious types of crime have been neglected. Focusing on those convicted of arson (n = 45,915), blackmail (n = 5,774), kidnapping (n = 7,291) and threats to kill (n = 9,816) in England and Wales (1979–2001), we examine the specialization and sequencing of these crimes in relation to the risk of subsequent homicide. All four offences have a heightened likelihood of subsequent homicide compared to the general population. Arson, blackmail and threats to kill have a similar homicide risk (0.8 per cent) after a 20-year follow-up; in contrast, kidnapping has a higher likelihood (1.0 per cent). Sequencing is also relevant, with those convicted of more than one type of serious offence being at higher risk of a homicide conviction. Additionally, there is evidence of specialization (particularly for arsonists) among serious offenders who recidivate.
Source: “Does Serious Offending Lead to Homicide?” from British Journal of Criminology
If you’re curious about this kind of stuff you really should read my post: You just committed murder. What should you do now? Perhaps appropriately, assembling that post nearly killed me.