Do rain and assassination promote democracy?

Lack of rain can:

According to the economic approach to political transitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theory requires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. We use rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. Instrumental variable estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.

Source: “Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity” from BBVA Research Nº 10/10

And I’ve already posted about the pro-democratic effects of whacking people:

Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new data set of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify assassination’s effects. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history.

Source: “Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War” from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Want to learn more? Follow me on FacebookTwitter or RSS.  

Related Posts:

You just committed murder. What should you do now?

Who loses in American democracy?

Among politicians, are Republicans or Democrats more likely to adopt Twitter?

Are you left wing — or do you just think you are?

Does college football affect who gets elected President of the United States? How about the Final Four?

Why politics is a mess and it’s all your fault

Why do politicians rarely change their positions?

Why do political incumbents have an advantage?

You know why that country’s citizens are miserable? Too many colors in their flag.

When it comes to politics, this is how shallow we are

Do liberals and conservatives dream differently?

How do our political leanings affect our investing?

Can you tell if someone is a Republican or Democrat just by looking at their face?

Does America thrive because the poor don’t vote?

How to tell which countries are corrupt… by looking at traffic tickets

Is corruption widespread in Congress?

Is corruption the problem or just the wrong *kind* of corruption?

Is there *too little* money in politics?


Tags:
Posted In:
Post Details